tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 08:56, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
QX 2400 Horizon SEA 12:00 TUL 17:44 18% 5% 1.0% no record
QX 2328 Horizon SEA 11:50 TUL 17:37 22% 6% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:28 → ATL 08:17DL 652 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 9h 28m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 21m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:44 → ORD 19:46AA 2966 3h 25m Chicago ORD 23:11 → TUL 01:07 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 9h 23m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 7h 31m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 10h 04m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 9h 20m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 3h 22m Phoenix PHX 12:40 → TUL 17:09AA 3544 · flown by Envoy 8h 53m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:48 → DEN 19:34UA 757 1h 21m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 90% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:53 → TUL 22:05AA 2014 6h 08m 47% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON