Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 577 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day B6 577 FLL 06:04 → SFO 09:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2347 MIA 21:01 → SFO 00:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 577 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:04	SFO 09:29	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 2753 American Flight history →	MIA 09:17	SFO 12:00	13%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 1267 United	FLL 12:43	SFO 15:42	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	14%	8%	1.2%	62%
AA 2347 American	MIA 21:01	SFO 00:01	22%	9%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 57m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672	8h 32m	97%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON