Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1793 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1793 FLL 07:28 → MDW 09:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2194 MIA 18:44 → ORD 21:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1793 Southwest	FLL 07:28	MDW 09:33	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 2809 United	FLL 06:59	ORD 09:22	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2738 American	FLL 08:33	ORD 10:56	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1464 American	MIA 05:14	ORD 07:42	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3076 American	MIA 08:13	ORD 10:32	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	12%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 835 American	MIA 13:27	ORD 15:54	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	15%	5%	0.8%	71%
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	15%	6%	0.9%	66%
AA 2634 American Flight history →	MIA 22:07	ORD 00:26	16%	5%	0.9%	70%
AA 1443 American Flight history →	FLL 13:41	ORD 15:54	18%	5%	0.7%	89%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	19%	6%	0.8%	52%
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 13:29	ORD 16:05	19%	6%	0.9%	69%
AA 483 American Flight history →	MIA 21:08	ORD 23:20	20%	6%	0.8%	79%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	21%	10%	1.9%	48%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	24%	9%	0.9%	60%
WN 3768 Southwest	FLL 16:56	MDW 19:07	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2866 Southwest	MIA 15:54	MDW 18:03	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	25%	10%	0.7%	59%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 16:46	ORD 19:12	25%	9%	0.9%	49%
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MIA 18:44	ORD 21:05	27%	8%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON