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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 66 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2165 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2165 FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2271 MIA 18:04 → LGA 20:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time
Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 2165 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:06 JFK 10:00 2% 1% 0.7% 90%
DL 2133 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:00 LGA 09:57 4% 1% 0.7% 94%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 07:01 JFK 10:00 4% 2% 0.7% 95%
AA 525 American Flight history → MIA 06:37 JFK 09:33 5% 2% 0.7% 92%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history → MIA 07:05 JFK 10:03 5% 2% 0.7% 88%
UA 2299 United FLL 07:04 EWR 10:06 5% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 1864 United Flight history → MIA 07:07 EWR 10:11 5% 2% 0.7% 93%
DL 2304 Delta FLL 07:03 LGA 09:48 6% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 2158 United MIA 06:04 EWR 09:02 6% 2% 0.7% no record
DL 2387 Delta Flight history → MIA 06:25 LGA 09:24 6% 2% 0.7% 87%
AA 2341 American Flight history → MIA 08:37 JFK 11:37 6% 2% 0.7% 84%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:11 LGA 09:01 7% 2% 0.7% 83%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 08:04 EWR 11:02 7% 2% 0.8% 65%
UA 2387 United Flight history → FLL 09:53 EWR 12:45 8% 2% 0.7% 83%
UA 408 United Flight history → MIA 08:48 EWR 11:54 8% 2% 0.6% 88%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history → MIA 08:15 LGA 11:16 8% 2% 0.7% 76%
AA 1801 American Flight history → MIA 08:31 EWR 11:38 8% 2% 0.7% 93%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:12 JFK 13:59 9% 3% 0.9% 72%
AA 2062 American MIA 10:41 JFK 13:40 9% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 3205 American Flight history → MIA 06:56 LGA 09:59 9% 3% 0.7% 90%
UA 210 United Flight history → FLL 11:11 EWR 14:15 10% 3% 0.9% 90%
AA 605 American Flight history → MIA 09:00 LGA 11:52 10% 2% 0.7% 88%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:29 JFK 18:48 10% 5% 1.0% 72%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 JFK 23:05 11% 6% 1.6% 59%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:57 JFK 14:53 13% 5% 0.9% 64%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 22:15 JFK 01:18 13% 8% 1.6% 64%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 10:04 LGA 12:57 13% 3% 0.7% 74%
DL 1473 Delta MIA 12:05 JFK 14:59 13% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:29 LGA 14:24 14% 3% 0.8% 70%
AA 2424 American MIA 10:31 LGA 13:40 14% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 1135 American FLL 12:29 LGA 15:40 14% 5% 0.8% no record
UA 712 United FLL 14:35 EWR 17:42 15% 6% 0.8% no record
UA 2433 United Flight history → MIA 11:26 EWR 14:31 15% 3% 0.7% 94%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:17 JFK 18:50 15% 6% 0.8% 73%
DL 1498 Delta MIA 11:49 LGA 14:43 16% 4% 0.7% no record
UA 1611 United Flight history → FLL 12:46 EWR 15:50 16% 5% 0.8% 78%
UA 1800 United Flight history → FLL 15:53 EWR 19:00 16% 9% 1.2% 61%
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 EWR 23:58 16% 10% 1.9% 51%
UA 279 United Flight history → FLL 17:24 EWR 20:35 16% 9% 1.2% 69%
AA 944 American Flight history → MIA 21:51 JFK 00:59 17% 8% 1.2% 64%
AA 2484 American MIA 12:26 LGA 15:25 18% 5% 0.7% no record
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 12:06 LGA 14:59 18% 5% 0.8% 58%
B6 2702 JetBlue FLL 18:31 JFK 21:24 18% 9% 1.6% no record
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:05 LGA 18:19 18% 5% 0.9% 68%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:40 EWR 21:43 18% 10% 1.8% 57%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:29 LGA 18:45 19% 6% 0.8% 72%
AA 2124 American MIA 16:41 JFK 19:28 19% 9% 0.8% no record
AA 1357 American Flight history → MIA 19:50 JFK 23:01 22% 9% 1.2% 56%
AA 2899 American Flight history → MIA 15:12 JFK 17:55 22% 9% 0.8% 61%
UA 1102 United MIA 13:30 EWR 16:40 22% 6% 0.7% no record
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:15 LGA 23:14 22% 10% 1.8% 55%
UA 2029 United Flight history → MIA 21:40 EWR 00:36 23% 7% 0.9% 72%
AA 2008 American Flight history → MIA 22:00 EWR 00:59 23% 8% 1.0% 62%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:40 LGA 22:59 23% 6% 1.2% 57%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:19 LGA 22:10 23% 6% 1.6% 62%
AA 1389 American Flight history → MIA 20:40 LGA 23:44 25% 9% 1.3% 58%
AA 552 American MIA 15:03 LGA 18:04 25% 9% 0.8% no record
AA 897 American MIA 15:29 LGA 18:21 26% 9% 0.8% no record
AA 2600 American MIA 18:48 JFK 21:30 26% 10% 1.2% no record
DL 1794 Delta MIA 19:42 JFK 22:27 27% 8% 1.0% no record
AA 322 American Flight history → MIA 19:48 EWR 22:53 27% 9% 1.3% 46%
AA 2172 American MIA 16:26 LGA 19:26 28% 9% 0.8% no record
AA 2262 American MIA 19:47 LGA 22:52 28% 8% 1.2% no record
B6 672 JetBlue FLL 18:41 LGA 21:34 30% 8% 1.3% no record
AA 2968 American FLL 17:24 LGA 20:21 31% 8% 1.2% no record
AA 2271 American Flight history → MIA 18:04 LGA 20:54 33% 9% 1.2% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON