Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1274 at 07:03, 2%.

Safest bet that day WN 1274 FLL 07:03 → MCO 08:14 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1610 MIA 16:53 → MCO 18:02 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1274 Southwest	FLL 07:03	MCO 08:14	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 1578 Southwest	MIA 07:16	MCO 08:19	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MIA 08:19	MCO 09:30	8%	4%	1.9%	97%
B6 2548 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:44	MCO 12:59	14%	5%	1.8%	76%
AA 2587 American Flight history →	MIA 10:47	MCO 12:02	15%	5%	1.3%	83%
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	25%	16%	6.8%	64%
AA 875 American	MIA 22:49	MCO 23:54	30%	15%	2.7%	no record
AA 1635 American	MIA 13:49	MCO 14:58	32%	9%	2.3%	no record
WN 1792 Southwest	FLL 16:43	MCO 17:43	34%	14%	3.2%	no record
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 20:17	MCO 21:28	41%	16%	4.4%	60%
WN 3346 Southwest	MIA 16:35	MCO 17:39	46%	16%	2.7%	no record
AA 1610 American	MIA 16:53	MCO 18:02	50%	26%	4.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON