Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3881 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3881 MIA 07:36 → BWI 10:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 667 MIA 18:18 → DCA 20:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3881 Southwest	MIA 07:36	BWI 10:08	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1778 Southwest	FLL 08:53	BWI 11:19	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:19	DCA 09:00	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 1421 United Flight history →	FLL 12:13	IAD 14:49	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 8121 United	FLL 12:11	IAD 14:44	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:02	DCA 10:49	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2435 United Flight history →	MIA 13:10	IAD 15:53	11%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 1584 Southwest	FLL 11:06	BWI 13:42	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1010 American	MIA 10:27	BWI 13:17	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1569 Southwest	FLL 13:47	BWI 16:17	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4219 Envoy	MIA 14:19	BWI 17:01	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1893 American Flight history →	FLL 11:30	DCA 14:04	13%	4%	0.7%	86%
WN 3156 Southwest	FLL 11:31	DCA 13:51	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1478 Southwest	FLL 14:57	BWI 17:23	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 10:34	DCA 13:13	14%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	16%	3%	0.8%	70%
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 11:42	BWI 14:37	16%	5%	1.2%	72%
AA 1595 American	MIA 11:50	DCA 14:27	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2859 Southwest	MIA 14:34	BWI 16:59	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	18%	8%	1.8%	57%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	20%	6%	0.8%	52%
AA 861 American	MIA 13:51	DCA 16:21	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3885 Southwest	MIA 16:06	BWI 18:41	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:27	DCA 18:01	23%	9%	0.9%	58%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	23%	6%	1.2%	76%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	24%	10%	1.9%	61%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	25%	9%	1.6%	36%
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:30	DCA 23:09	25%	9%	1.2%	74%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	28%	12%	2.1%	54%
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	30%	10%	1.3%	63%
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 18:42	BWI 21:16	33%	11%	1.2%	57%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:18	DCA 20:59	34%	10%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON