Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 570 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 570 SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1448 SFO 22:10 → ATL 06:07 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 570 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	ATL 13:44	4%	1%	0.7%	93%
DL 640 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:50	ATL 15:32	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 681 Delta	SFO 23:31	ATL 07:19	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:38	ATL 19:27	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:59	ATL 06:40	11%	2%	0.6%	71%
UA 702 United Flight history →	SFO 10:57	ATL 18:48	11%	4%	0.5%	86%
DL 531 Delta Flight history →	SFO 14:00	ATL 21:51	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
F9 1448 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 22:10	ATL 06:07	30%	10%	1.2%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 49m	98%	89%
American Details →	SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:23 → ATL 16:46AA 2398	7h 01m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	51m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 27m	88%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON