Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 400 at 00:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 400 SFO 00:04 → AUS 05:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2375 SFO 12:34 → AUS 18:06 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 400 United	SFO 00:04	AUS 05:58	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2332 United Flight history →	SFO 18:18	AUS 23:58	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:49	AUS 15:36	13%	3%	0.7%	69%
UA 2150 United	SFO 16:21	AUS 21:55	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1116 United Flight history →	SFO 13:20	AUS 19:05	13%	4%	0.5%	81%
UA 2432 United	SFO 11:07	AUS 16:54	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:59	AUS 23:32	16%	5%	0.6%	47%
WN 682 Southwest	SFO 18:55	AUS 00:11	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2375 Southwest	SFO 12:34	AUS 18:06	21%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON