Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1683 SFO 23:01 → BNA 05:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 499 SFO 11:35 → BNA 18:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1683 Southwest	SFO 23:01	BNA 05:19	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 433 United	SFO 14:21	BNA 20:44	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 499 United Flight history →	SFO 11:35	BNA 18:12	18%	4%	0.5%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:43 → BNA 13:23UA 355	6h 23m	96%	87%
Frontier Details →	SFO 06:00 → DEN 09:46F9 1230	46m Denver	DEN 10:32 → BNA 14:20F9 1402	6h 20m	85%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON