Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 400 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 400 SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 860 SFO 16:56 → BOS 01:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 400 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:10	BOS 15:55	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1665 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	BOS 08:01	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
B6 434 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 07:50	BOS 16:35	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 2647 United Flight history →	SFO 09:31	BOS 18:17	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
B6 1034 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:34	BOS 20:31	12%	5%	0.7%	54%
B6 1734 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:25	BOS 19:12	13%	5%	0.7%	70%
B6 134 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 21:44	BOS 06:28	13%	5%	0.7%	65%
UA 2634 United	SFO 15:34	BOS 00:21	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
B6 1234 JetBlue	SFO 14:39	BOS 23:25	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2356 United Flight history →	SFO 12:49	BOS 21:21	16%	4%	0.6%	63%
UA 1372 United Flight history →	SFO 14:28	BOS 23:07	16%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 977 Delta Flight history →	SFO 12:20	BOS 21:02	16%	4%	0.6%	60%
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:56	BOS 01:34	18%	5%	0.6%	37%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 46m	98%	87%
American Details →	SFO 06:15 → JFK 15:02AA 234	59m New York	JFK 16:01 → BOS 17:18AA 4397 · flown by Republic	8h 02m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 50m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON