Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2363 at 08:33 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2363 SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 1045 SFO 11:43 → BUR 12:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2363 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	BUR 09:57	8%	3%	0.7%	84%
OO 5392 SkyWest	SFO 07:19	BUR 08:57	10%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 4521 Southwest	SFO 08:35	BUR 09:49	10%	3%	5.1%	no record
UA 2001 United	SFO 18:51	BUR 20:23	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2764 United Flight history →	SFO 16:15	BUR 17:42	14%	5%	0.6%	56%
UA 626 United Flight history →	SFO 13:50	BUR 15:17	15%	5%	0.6%	69%
WN 3546 Southwest	SFO 17:42	BUR 19:01	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 2115 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	BUR 11:49	20%	6%	0.7%	81%
WN 1045 Southwest	SFO 11:43	BUR 12:48	27%	5%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON