tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2603 United SFO 10:24 CLE 18:09 18% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 15:31 → CLE 18:32DL 1118 9h 32m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 04m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CLE 23:44UA 2131 9h 54m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 10h 30m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:04 → IAH 06:15UA 505 1h 05m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 8h 10m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:43DL 1392 8h 01m 99% 87%
JetBlueDetails → SFO 07:50 → BOS 16:35B6 434 1h 42m Boston BOS 18:17 → CLE 20:24B6 1341 9h 34m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:05 → ORD 12:41UA 2091 1h 39m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 7h 49m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:41DL 1350 9h 41m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:20 → EWR 19:03UA 713 52m Newark EWR 19:55 → CLE 21:45UA 2398 8h 25m 73% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON