Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2514 SFO 22:05 → CLT 06:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1023 SFO 12:06 → CLT 20:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2514 American Flight history →	SFO 22:05	CLT 06:11	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 1960 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	CLT 16:36	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1023 American	SFO 12:06	CLT 20:18	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	56m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	7h 15m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	7h 17m	98%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:49 → CLT 15:02UA 2231	7h 02m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON