tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Columbus on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1329 United SFO 08:14 CMH 16:01 10% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:00 → EWR 08:49UA 2416 1h 49m Newark EWR 10:38 → CMH 12:33UA 3638 · flown by Republic 9h 33m 98% 92%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614 2h 39m Chicago ORD 15:10 → CMH 17:36AA 3542 · flown by Envoy 8h 32m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 21m Dulles IAD 22:32 → CMH 00:20 +1UA 3646 · flown by Republic 10h 30m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55DL 400 3h 30m Boston BOS 19:25 → CMH 21:50DL 5629 · flown by Republic 11h 40m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 59m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 28m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:04 → PHL 08:38AA 2663 1h 42m Philadelphia PHL 10:20 → CMH 12:08AA 2253 9h 04m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 22:34 → CMH 00:15 +1DL 1459 9h 37m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 10h 03m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON