Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1678 SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2386 SFO 14:18 → DCA 22:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	9%	2%	0.5%	90%
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	16%	5%	0.5%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 45m	98%	88%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	55m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	6h 59m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	7h 47m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON