Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 772 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 772 SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 805 SFO 14:14 → DTW 21:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 772 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:40	DTW 13:09	4%	1%	0.6%	93%
UA 1286 United	SFO 10:55	DTW 18:49	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 335 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:55	DTW 06:27	10%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 2057 Delta	SFO 11:45	DTW 19:09	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 805 Delta	SFO 14:14	DTW 21:41	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	6h 22m	97%	89%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:27UA 1915	6h 27m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	6h 20m	92%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON