Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 502 United	SFO 16:18	EUG 17:58	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 5453 SkyWest	SFO 12:26	EUG 14:10	19%	10%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	2h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 07m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:29 → SEA 19:44DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	6h 22m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:39 → SEA 19:47AS 1340	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	6h 20m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	SFO 18:46 → PDX 20:31AS 525	1h 15m Portland	PDX 21:46 → EUG 22:51AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest	4h 05m	91%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	7h 03m	98%	77%
United Details →	SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596	1h 24m Denver	DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303	7h 01m	91%	74%
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656	3h 23m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	6h 42m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON