Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 517 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 517 SFO 05:59 → EWR 14:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2480 SFO 13:18 → EWR 21:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 517 United	SFO 05:59	EWR 14:34	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 00:00	EWR 08:50	7%	2%	0.7%	75%
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	9%	2%	0.7%	84%
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	10%	3%	0.7%	67%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	EWR 07:00	11%	2%	0.7%	83%
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	14%	4%	0.7%	57%
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	15%	4%	0.7%	70%
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:15	EWR 20:10	15%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 713 United Flight history →	SFO 10:20	EWR 19:03	16%	4%	0.7%	75%
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 13:18	EWR 21:44	18%	5%	0.7%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 59m	98%	86%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 23m Denver	DEN 09:58 → EWR 16:00UA 2381	8h 00m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 14m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON