Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2431 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2431 SFO 08:50 → FLL 17:47 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 578 SFO 10:34 → FLL 19:06 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2431 United	SFO 08:50	FLL 17:47	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 278 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 22:40	FLL 07:22	14%	5%	0.8%	79%
B6 578 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:34	FLL 19:06	22%	5%	0.7%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	1h 24m Houston	IAH 07:58 → FLL 11:33UA 2261	7h 48m	95%	85%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 24m Denver	DEN 09:59 → FLL 16:11UA 1214	8h 11m	98%	84%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168	1h 14m Houston	IAH 12:09 → FLL 15:58UA 1982	7h 58m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON