Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:31 pm at San Francisco); 4 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: UA 638 at 19:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–26%.

Safest bet today UA 638 SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 833 SFO 19:47 → HNL 22:18 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 638 United Flight history →	SFO 19:00	HNL 21:43	14%	6%	0.2%	88%
UA 1509 United Flight history →	SFO 16:45	HNL 19:25	17%	6%	0.2%	85%
UA 300 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	HNL 16:18	22%	5%	0.3%	84%
AS 833 Alaska	SFO 19:47	HNL 22:18	26%	7%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON