Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 3774 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–11%.

Safest bet that day UA 3774 SFO 06:16 → IAD 14:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 336 SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3774 United	SFO 06:16	IAD 14:37	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 705 United Flight history →	SFO 21:28	IAD 05:48	6%	3%	0.5%	100%
UA 2158 United	SFO 07:00	IAD 15:18	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:58	10%	3%	0.5%	67%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 599 United	SFO 08:42	IAD 16:58	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:49	IAD 21:18	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	13%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	16%	5%	0.5%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	7h 38m	93%	86%
Delta Details →	SFO 13:08 → SLC 16:01DL 902	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 21m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	SFO 14:00 → ATL 21:51DL 531	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 41m	88%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON