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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Frontier via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2274 United SFO 09:59 IND 17:20 8% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:12 → EWR 08:31UA 2416 3h 23m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 10h 55m 100% 94%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35AA 2161 3h 44m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 45m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 6h 33m 98% 92%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:06 → PHL 08:42AA 2663 2h 03m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → IND 12:55AA 5240 · flown by PSA 9h 49m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → IND 17:35DL 2979 8h 35m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55DL 400 1h 50m Boston BOS 17:45 → IND 20:34DL 5616 · flown by Republic 10h 24m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522 6h 35m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 10h 03m 100% 91%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:20 → EWR 19:03UA 713 48m Newark EWR 19:51 → IND 22:20UA 3447 · flown by Republic 9h 00m 72% 64%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 19:35 → SEA 21:43AS 758 56m Seattle SEA 22:39 → IND 05:44 +1AS 624 7h 09m 74% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON