tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 1593 at 13:16, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1593 United SFO 13:16 JAC 16:27 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 25m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:08 → SLC 16:01DL 902 2h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → JAC 16:58DL 509 6h 03m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:11 → DFW 05:43AA 2111 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:16 → JAC 10:25AA 1923 9h 14m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 6h 46m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:44 → LAX 08:15AA 1097 1h 31m Los Angeles LAX 09:46 → JAC 13:22AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 1h 57m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 6h 13m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 35m Denver DEN 19:10 → JAC 20:48UA 785 7h 05m 97% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON