tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 49m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55DL 400 3h 24m Boston BOS 19:19 → LGA 20:41DL 1717 10h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 58m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 9h 37m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:04 → IAH 06:14UA 505 1h 45m Houston IAH 07:59 → LGA 12:38UA 1143 9h 34m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:20DL 997 10h 20m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 46m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON