tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2072 United SFO 11:01 MCI 16:40 16% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 2h 45m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 9h 14m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 7h 14m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 07m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:51UA 505 2h 01m Houston IAH 07:52 → MCI 09:53UA 2009 7h 48m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159 5h 38m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:51 → LAX 08:16UA 1260 1h 54m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → MCI 15:45UA 5426 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:09 → DFW 05:42AA 2111 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:24 → MCI 11:11AA 3331 9h 02m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:41 → MCI 15:28AA 1622 7h 38m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON