tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Bush, leaving 00:04, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1947 United Flight history → SFO 00:04 MCO 08:36 9% 3% 0.9% 93%
UA 583 United Flight history → SFO 08:44 MCO 17:25 22% 8% 1.3% 90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:29 → SEA 19:44DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 11h 11m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:04 → IAH 06:15UA 505 1h 05m Houston IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245 7h 47m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 2h 56m Houston IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310 9h 15m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:00 → EWR 08:50UA 2416 2h 20m Newark EWR 11:10 → MCO 14:03UA 2396 11h 03m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 19m Dulles IAD 22:30 → MCO 01:11 +1UA 689 11h 21m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 3h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 53m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:04 → PHL 08:38AA 2663 2h 21m Philadelphia PHL 10:59 → MCO 13:36AA 3268 10h 32m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON