Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1001 United	SFO 16:50	MFR 18:16	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2322 United Flight history →	SFO 10:37	MFR 12:04	18%	3%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	94%
Alaska Details →	SFO 08:30 → LAX 10:07AS 1329	3h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 13:15 → MFR 15:14AS 2328 · flown by Horizon	6h 44m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:29 → SEA 19:44DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	96%	87%
Alaska Details →	SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50AS 235	3h 55m Portland	PDX 17:45 → MFR 18:48AS 2163 · flown by Horizon	6h 40m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	SFO 17:39 → SEA 19:47AS 1340	2h 53m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	6h 25m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:42 → SEA 15:50AS 68	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	5h 31m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 19:35 → SEA 21:43AS 758	57m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	4h 29m	73%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON