Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5627 at 17:18 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 5627 SFO 17:18 → MRY 18:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OO 750 SFO 10:15 → MRY 11:23 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5627 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:18	MRY 18:32	10%	4%	0.9%	79%
OO 5920 SkyWest	SFO 12:07	MRY 13:18	19%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 750 SkyWest	SFO 10:15	MRY 11:23	23%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON