tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 5422 at 12:15, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5422 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 12:15 MSO 15:38 30% 10% 0.5% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 5h 45m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 3h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:24 → MSO 13:35UA 2357 7h 35m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362 7h 38m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 2h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 22:42 → MSO 00:17 +1DL 1824 6h 10m 98% 87%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 52m Portland PDX 10:54 → MSO 13:25AS 2146 · flown by Horizon 5h 05m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092 7h 56m 97% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 3h 56m Seattle SEA 12:09 → MSO 14:36AS 660 7h 33m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 17:37 → SEA 19:41AS 1340 1h 07m Seattle SEA 20:48 → MSO 23:10AS 1435 4h 33m 71% 51%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327 54m Seattle SEA 12:09 → MSO 14:36AS 660 4h 36m 58% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON