Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2178 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–12%.

Safest bet that day DL 2178 SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1050 SFO 10:29 → MSP 16:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2178 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	MSP 11:36	3%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 756 Delta Flight history →	SFO 18:25	MSP 23:56	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
OO 5951 SkyWest	SFO 16:51	MSP 22:58	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2159 Delta Flight history →	SFO 15:27	MSP 21:00	13%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 2078 Delta Flight history →	SFO 12:42	MSP 18:19	16%	3%	0.6%	61%
UA 1050 United	SFO 10:29	MSP 16:17	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON