tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Omaha on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2839 United SFO 18:33 OMA 23:59 18% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 1h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 21:56 → OMA 01:16 +1DL 3706 · flown by SkyWest 6h 09m 95% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 8h 06m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 28m Denver DEN 10:03 → OMA 12:44UA 1633 5h 44m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614 1h 36m Chicago ORD 14:07 → OMA 15:56AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 7h 52m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 9h 48m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:05 → ORD 12:41UA 2091 3h 06m Chicago ORD 15:47 → OMA 17:28UA 2207 9h 23m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 2h 54m Denver DEN 21:05 → OMA 23:42UA 1787 7h 22m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 50m Seattle SEA 09:03 → OMA 14:16AS 312 6h 13m 66% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON