Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 5763 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day OO 5763 SFO 08:59 → ONT 10:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5932 SFO 13:34 → ONT 15:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5763 SkyWest	SFO 08:59	ONT 10:48	10%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 5907 SkyWest	SFO 08:52	ONT 10:28	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 2678 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 08:09	ONT 09:43	15%	6%	1.3%	58%
UA 2478 United	SFO 18:54	ONT 20:32	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 393 United	SFO 16:08	ONT 17:45	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 5571 SkyWest	SFO 13:58	ONT 15:47	19%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 5932 SkyWest	SFO 13:34	ONT 15:10	26%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON