Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AS 1410 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day AS 1410 SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 235 SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 1410 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	PDX 09:02	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 1227 United	SFO 19:11	PDX 21:14	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2413 United Flight history →	SFO 20:51	PDX 22:49	9%	4%	0.6%	56%
UA 1812 United Flight history →	SFO 16:48	PDX 18:45	10%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 2851 United Flight history →	SFO 12:31	PDX 14:26	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
AS 1411 Alaska	SFO 08:18	PDX 10:10	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 5777 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:12	PDX 10:11	14%	5%	0.7%	69%
AS 525 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 18:46	PDX 20:31	15%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 2624 United	SFO 10:22	PDX 12:16	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1302 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:02	PDX 16:47	16%	3%	0.6%	76%
AS 235 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 12:08	PDX 13:50	25%	4%	0.6%	62%
AS 2023 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 22:08	PDX 23:52	46%	31%	6.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON