Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops
Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.
Against a calm day
7%
average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day
Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6
12-month record →Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
| AA 2161 American Flight history → | SFO 06:00 | PHL 14:35 | 4% | 1% | 0.6% | 93% |
| UA 2854 United Flight history → | SFO 23:20 | PHL 07:50 | 5% | 2% | 0.5% | 83% |
| AA 2663 American Flight history → | SFO 00:00 | PHL 08:26 | 5% | 2% | 0.6% | 94% |
| UA 2824 United | SFO 08:51 | PHL 17:26 | 8% | 3% | 0.5% | no record |
| AA 2722 American Flight history → | SFO 07:40 | PHL 16:00 | 9% | 3% | 0.6% | 71% |
| AA 3166 American Flight history → | SFO 21:24 | PHL 05:33 | 9% | 2% | 0.7% | 89% |
| AA 1845 American | SFO 11:12 | PHL 19:49 | 11% | 4% | 0.6% | no record |
Alternatives with one stop that day
All connections →About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON