Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3557 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3557 SFO 05:49 → PHX 07:46 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2638 SFO 13:15 → PHX 15:26 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3557 Southwest	SFO 05:49	PHX 07:46	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 6404 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 05:50	PHX 08:01	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1653 United	SFO 20:57	PHX 23:09	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1375 United Flight history →	SFO 19:01	PHX 21:05	11%	4%	0.5%	85%
AA 2414 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	PHX 10:22	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 574 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	PHX 18:39	13%	5%	0.5%	73%
AA 1837 American	SFO 15:58	PHX 17:50	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5460 SkyWest	SFO 10:40	PHX 12:37	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2334 American	SFO 12:47	PHX 14:54	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3975 Southwest	SFO 14:40	PHX 16:29	22%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 972 Southwest	SFO 10:52	PHX 12:44	26%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2638 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 13:15	PHX 15:26	28%	7%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON