tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1954 United SFO 08:16 PIT 16:19 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:15 → JFK 15:02AA 234 1h 36m New York JFK 16:38 → PIT 18:20AA 4734 · flown by Republic 9h 05m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 3h 19m Dulles IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36UA 3540 · flown by Republic 9h 46m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 40m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 10h 12m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 8h 08m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 30m Denver DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308 7h 16m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 2h 45m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 8h 59m 95% 88%
AmericanDetails → SFO 10:15 → JFK 19:04AA 16 1h 26m New York JFK 20:30 → PIT 22:27AA 4611 · flown by Republic 9h 12m 94% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 19:35 → SEA 21:43AS 758 54m Seattle SEA 22:37 → PIT 06:10 +1AS 77 7h 35m 70% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON