Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 717 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 717 SFO 08:27 → PSP 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 3420 SFO 11:37 → PSP 13:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 717 United Flight history →	SFO 08:27	PSP 10:05	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
QX 2167 Horizon	SFO 08:41	PSP 10:21	10%	4%	1.8%	no record
AS 3356 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:19	PSP 21:57	15%	5%	0.8%	61%
UA 342 United	SFO 13:53	PSP 15:31	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5705 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:38	PSP 20:26	18%	5%	0.7%	83%
OO 3462 SkyWest	SFO 10:40	PSP 12:19	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 4671 SkyWest	SFO 16:13	PSP 17:52	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3420 SkyWest	SFO 11:37	PSP 13:03	25%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON