Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2153 SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 3361 SFO 16:42 → RDM 18:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2153 United Flight history →	SFO 10:28	RDM 12:12	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 2418 United	SFO 16:38	RDM 18:23	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 3361 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:42	RDM 18:26	15%	6%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON