Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2080 United Flight history →	SFO 00:04	RDU 07:57	7%	2%	0.2%	91%
UA 2816 United	SFO 08:06	RDU 16:17	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	2h 53m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407	9h 07m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839	8h 48m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	7h 20m	97%	90%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	7h 16m	97%	89%
American Details →	SFO 10:15 → JFK 19:04AA 16	3h 06m New York	JFK 22:10 → RDU 00:12 +1AA 4573 · flown by Republic	10h 57m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938	9h 32m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	2h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699	8h 51m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	8h 04m	98%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SFO 08:15 → EWR 16:53UA 435	47m Newark	EWR 17:40 → RDU 19:31UA 1975	8h 16m	75%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON