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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2365 United SFO 12:20 SAT 18:01 15% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:04 → ORD 12:31AA 2614 2h 32m Chicago ORD 15:03 → SAT 18:03AA 4176 · flown by Envoy 9h 59m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 5h 46m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 9h 11m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Phoenix PHX 09:56 → SAT 14:29AA 3229 6h 39m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 52m Houston IAH 14:47 → SAT 16:07UA 2030 9h 07m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 5h 43m 94% 86%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:59 → DFW 13:30AA 304 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:22 → SAT 18:32AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 8h 33m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 3h 16m Denver DEN 17:39 → SAT 20:54UA 2819 8h 14m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406 5h 57m 74% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON