Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 639 SFO 17:03 → SBA 18:32 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5464 SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 639 United	SFO 17:03	SBA 18:32	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 5806 SkyWest	SFO 19:07	SBA 20:43	15%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 1578 United Flight history →	SFO 10:29	SBA 11:52	20%	6%	0.7%	81%
UA 5464 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:50	SBA 15:17	22%	12%	0.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON