Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AS 620 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day AS 620 SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 656 SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 620 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:03	SEA 08:13	10%	2%	0.7%	90%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SFO 20:45	SEA 23:10	12%	4%	0.5%	66%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:30	SEA 15:47	14%	3%	0.6%	77%
AS 580 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:13	SEA 08:05	14%	2%	0.7%	80%
UA 1097 United	SFO 20:34	SEA 22:43	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3991 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	SEA 23:17	15%	4%	0.7%	67%
UA 2279 United Flight history →	SFO 16:27	SEA 18:47	16%	5%	0.5%	76%
DL 1053 Delta	SFO 10:45	SEA 12:59	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:29	SEA 19:44	19%	5%	0.6%	68%
AS 591 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 20:28	SEA 22:41	19%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	SFO 12:10	SEA 14:30	21%	4%	0.5%	72%
UA 500 United	SFO 10:52	SEA 13:04	22%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 758 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 19:35	SEA 21:43	22%	4%	0.6%	73%
AS 1340 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 17:39	SEA 19:47	23%	5%	0.6%	69%
AS 68 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:42	SEA 15:50	24%	3%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
OO 5790 SkyWest	SFO 07:32	SEA 10:00	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1327 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:00	SEA 11:15	25%	3%	0.6%	69%
AS 630 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:26	SEA 17:28	28%	5%	0.6%	21%
AS 656 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:18	SEA 12:27	39%	5%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON