Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1331 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1331 SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 902 SFO 13:08 → SLC 16:01 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1331 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:50	SLC 08:40	4%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 5590 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:51	SLC 22:03	8%	4%	0.6%	81%
OO 5908 SkyWest	SFO 09:38	SLC 12:40	11%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 670 Delta	SFO 19:07	SLC 22:02	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:55	SLC 12:44	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:07	SLC 20:00	15%	4%	0.6%	71%
UA 520 United	SFO 13:49	SLC 16:49	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:08	SLC 16:01	18%	4%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON