Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5220 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 5220 SFO 08:17 → SMF 09:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest OO 4790 SFO 12:10 → SMF 13:03 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5220 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:17	SMF 09:25	8%	3%	0.7%	83%
UA 1862 United	SFO 18:48	SMF 19:50	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4790 SkyWest	SFO 12:10	SMF 13:03	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON