Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AS 3440 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day AS 3440 SFO 07:09 → SNA 08:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 3216 SFO 13:44 → SNA 15:39 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 07:09	SNA 08:56	5%	3%	0.9%	92%
UA 589 United Flight history →	SFO 19:10	SNA 20:55	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
OO 5405 SkyWest	SFO 07:11	SNA 08:50	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2441 United Flight history →	SFO 12:19	SNA 14:22	12%	5%	0.6%	89%
AS 3465 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:55	SNA 22:22	13%	3%	0.9%	79%
UA 643 United Flight history →	SFO 10:20	SNA 12:03	14%	5%	0.6%	82%
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 09:28	SNA 11:11	14%	5%	0.8%	79%
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:08	SNA 19:47	15%	4%	0.9%	71%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:48	SNA 17:26	16%	4%	0.7%	85%
OO 5597 SkyWest	SFO 16:48	SNA 18:44	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 3055 SkyWest	SFO 11:54	SNA 13:53	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:39	SNA 15:31	18%	5%	0.7%	80%
AS 3216 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:44	SNA 15:39	19%	5%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON