Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Bush, leaving 00:04, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1702 United	SFO 21:17	TPA 06:00	12%	3%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088	3h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077	9h 54m	99%	88%
United Details →	SFO 00:00 → EWR 08:50UA 2416	3h 09m Newark	EWR 11:59 → TPA 15:10UA 601	12h 10m	100%	86%
United Details →	SFO 00:04 → IAH 06:15UA 505	1h 06m Houston	IAH 07:21 → TPA 10:53UA 1353	7h 49m	94%	85%
American Details →	SFO 00:04 → PHL 08:38AA 2663	1h 59m Philadelphia	PHL 10:37 → TPA 13:13AA 2015	10h 09m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	7h 58m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	9h 51m	99%	83%
United Details →	SFO 06:58 → LAX 08:26UA 1260	1h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 09:34 → TPA 17:36UA 392	7h 38m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → TPA 00:15 +1DL 2385	8h 33m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON