tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: OO 5341 at 19:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5341 SkyWest SFO 19:03 TUS 21:35 10% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 5433 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:17 TUS 12:23 23% 6% 0.5% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 2h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 32m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 09:21 → TUS 10:26AA 6367 · flown by SkyWest 4h 36m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:20 → LAX 10:53DL 1421 3h 17m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SFO 00:09 → DFW 05:41AA 2111 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:20 → TUS 08:38AA 1014 8h 29m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 1h 12m Denver DEN 15:35 → TUS 16:48UA 2049 6h 08m 90% 77%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:00 → TUS 14:36AA 2537 7h 51m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 35m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 7h 29m 97% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON