Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5895 SGF 05:50 → DEN 06:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5404 SGF 17:01 → DEN 18:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5895 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 05:50	DEN 06:57	7%	6%	0.4%	89%
UA 5541 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 13:33	DEN 14:48	8%	3%	0.5%	79%
UA 5898 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 09:03	DEN 10:20	8%	4%	0.5%	86%
UA 5404 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 17:01	DEN 18:25	15%	3%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON