Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3976 SGF 06:57 → DFW 08:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3556 SGF 16:12 → DFW 17:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3976 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 06:57	DFW 08:37	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 3624 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 08:14	DFW 09:54	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 3913 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 09:45	DFW 11:09	6%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 4152 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 11:32	DFW 12:56	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 3952 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 12:57	DFW 14:20	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 14:28	DFW 15:52	10%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 4311 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 18:50	DFW 20:16	11%	2%	0.7%	63%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 16:12	DFW 17:37	12%	3%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON