Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5915 SGF 06:02 → IAH 07:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4617 SGF 16:50 → IAH 18:33 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5915 SkyWest	SGF 06:02	IAH 07:54	9%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 5767 SkyWest	SGF 09:02	IAH 11:02	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5532 SkyWest	SGF 06:17	IAH 08:17	10%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 4996 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	SGF 15:05	IAH 16:59	13%	3%	0.8%	78%
G7 4617 GoJet	SGF 16:50	IAH 18:33	16%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON